Flamengo – Athletico PR: The big final of the 2022 Copa Libertadores…
Flamengo is far more famous outside Brazil. In 2014, the German team that won the FIFA World Cup had one of the kits inspired by the colours of Flamengo.
But the hype around the carioca team may be a little exaggerated in the gambling markets right now. Let’s have a look at the odds.
Flamengo – Athletico PR: 1X2 Betting Scenario
Right now, Flamengo has odds of 1.54 to win the game on average. The draw has odds of 4.06 and the victory of the underdogs has odds of 6.43
Clearly, the market has a preference for Flamengo, which I believe is not entirely wrong. However, some facts regarding the coach of Athletico are being underestimated.
Felipe Scolari, a.k.a. Felipão
Brazilians the former manager of the Brazilian selection, Portuguese selection, and Chelsea ‘big Phil’ in Brazilian Portuguese. The coach is known as Felipão in Brazil.
The manager is a legend because of the way he can motivate players. The legendary loss against Germany in the 2014 FIFA World Cup was a very specific incident. The manager lifted a Brazilian Série A trophy after that with Palmeiras in 2018. Now he has done what many considered almost impossible, help a modest Athletico beat Palmeiras in the semi-finals and reach yet another CONMEBOL Libertadores final.
The motivation factor: Scolari’s secret weapon
The argument might sound a little too simple, but it is backed by the history of Scolari throughout his career. He’s a specialist to make teams go beyond their perceived potential. The first time it happened was when he commanded the modest Criciúma in their 1991 Brazil Cup title. To this day, that title is the only national title of any team from the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil.
In other words, his capacity to motivate a team should be taken into account. If this was a normal Brazilian Série A game between Athletico PR and Flamengo, then the current odds of the 1×2 market could be justified.
But it is a final in a neutral field. The Asian Handicap also has impressive odds right now. Athletico PR +1 @1.90 definitely looks valuable right now to me, but you decide! Do you believe in the potential of Felipão’s squad? Well, then grab the odds of the 1×2 market or the AH market before they are gone!
Betting on the goals: Libertadores final
The handicap of circa -1 in the Asian Handicap market to ‘almost level odds’ normally drives the over/under lines up.
However, this is not the case here. Under 2.5 lines have odds of circa 1.85 right now. Perhaps the line could be smaller, something like 2.25 or even 2. But the current AH match result market forces 2.5 to be the lines available. To understand the AH markets more in-depth we’ll publish a complete guide very soon.
It’s important to note that Athletico will likely be very careful defensively, and their games did not produce that many goals in the knockout phase of the ongoing edition of CONMEBOL Libertadores.
It takes just one team defending well to make an under bet interesting.